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Research: Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55

Ember think tank released a new research demonstrating that the EU is on track to surpass the 40% renewable energy target and is heading towards 45%.


Publication date
2 March 2023


Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan proposed increasing the bloc’s renewable energy target for 2030 from 40% to 45%. The proposal received strong support from the European Parliament, but some Member States are opposed to this move. The new report of Ember shows that the 40% target is already outdated.

The research demonstrates that :

  • Solar to reach double EU policy forecasts, with other clean technologies surging
    Recent market outlooks foresee deployment of key clean technologies that far exceeds the current Fit-for-55 pathway. Leading this is a surge in solar power, with capacity in 2030 at least twice that originally forecast. The number of heat pumps is expected to reach at least 60 million (+50%) and the EV fleet to expand to a minimum of 40 million (+30%).
  • EU is on course to reach at least 45% renewables by 2030
    This acceleration of clean technologies renders the EU’s 2030 target for 40% renewable energy not only unambitious but outdated. Taking into account reasonable industry forecasts, our calculations demonstrate that the EU is on course to achieve 45% renewables by 2030. With strengthened policy and financial support, more optimistic outlooks boost the renewable share to 50%
  • Outdated EU policy must align with market trends
    Discussions on the renewable energy target coincide with the publication of the Net Zero Industrial Plan. Climate ambitions shaping EU policy should reflect emerging technology trends to better enable European industry to capitalise on exponential market growth of clean technologies in the EU, helping the EU to safeguard competitiveness.
Research: Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55


10 MAY 2023
Research: Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55