New Review Assesses Residential Heat Decarbonisation in Ireland

Published in March 2026, this special article from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) examines Ireland's Climate Action Plan targets for residential heat decarbonisation, covering deep retrofits, heat pump deployment, and district heating.

Using the latest administrative data, the authors find that progress is falling well short of ambition. By end-2024, deep retrofits reached 57.932 homes while heat pump installations stood at 14.194, representing only 3.5% of the target. Linear projections suggest that even continued acceleration is unlikely to close the gap by 2030, with district heating facing similar shortfalls.

The article identifies the key barriers driving under-delivery, including high household capital costs, disruption, administrative complexity, information constraints, and landlord-tenant split incentives. It also highlights capacity trade-offs in the renovation supply chain.

The findings are highly relevant for energy agencies and local authorities working on building renovation strategies and national decarbonisation roadmaps across Europe.